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Well. From one perspective, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has concluded unsuccessfully.

The effort ran for over 36 months for the rights to put on the largest global environmental conference and green trade fair, which would have attracted many thousands of people to the South Australian capital next fall.

This won't occur. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is moving to the resort city of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Disappointment and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to many people who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help accelerate Australia's transition from being a fossil fuel economy to a clean energy leader, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been joint hosts.

The process that led to failure has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that Anthony Albanese and other high-ranking officials truly desired the bid to be approved. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. This led to reports in the local and global press saying the government was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, the climate minister, had just declared the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only sometimes appeared to care.

DFAT, usually in charge for global environmental talks, has been uninvolved and sometimes completely against.

There is little sign Albanese has considered UN climate conferences a priority. He has missed one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but many may question if more could have been done to secure the hosting rights.

A Different Perspective

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

Considering the Cop30 talks this week in Brazil – and from an international perspective – the decision on this week may, perversely, have been the best result available.

The minister outlined on that day an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – Bowen himself – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the discussions on how to together address the environmental emergency.

There would also be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a lead-up event on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for doubt. The two nations do not have a close relationship. The details of the agreement had not been completed at the time of writing. The whole thing could fall over before it gets started.

But it could also be a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

Turkey is generally viewed in the global community as having been hellbent on causing havoc in the international climate negotiations. This framework is supposed to work by consensus. Usually, that means if there are several nations in the race those with weaker backing either withdraw gracefully, or a deal is privately arranged to encourage them to exit the race.

The Turkish bid plainly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to organize the summit. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "disruption" has been thrown around in the past week, and not only by Australians.

International Dynamics

Turkey's obstinacy can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. Without US participation under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the heft to confront the oil producers that offered the Turks with certain protection.

The Turkish president is considered close to the Russian leader. Several nations worried about a summit hindered from the top if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an underprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the deadlock wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to watch, but global cooperation has empirically made a difference in the battle with global heating. This joint approach is a innovative solution that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the federal administration over its contradictory stance for increasing fossil fuel exports, climate activists who participate in international meetings see Bowen as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This is significant. While some have dismissed the role of a "president of negotiations", specialists from academic institutions and experienced analysts at climate talks assert it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a president holding the pen who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in the Danish city in 2009," he says. "It's the most important role at the Cop except for making sure that delegates are fed."

Unanswered Questions

Multiple unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at climate conferences. What, if anything, can the Australian government do to stop a restriction on civil society by the host government?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this arrangement appearing as the best chance available to have a summit that may provide benefits for the Pacific, Australia and the world. It's worth a try.