Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Campaign to Prevent Manchester Mayor's Commons Return
Close associates of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted effort to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a return to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending byelection.
Major Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's ruling NEC have apparently suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.
The Labour hierarchy reportedly swung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the substantial financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he stated that numerous MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is aiming for a return to parliament to potentially contest the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir arise. However, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is passionate about his current role and would solely return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Current Climate and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls indicating Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole senior Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.
If Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against challenges from Reform and independent candidates, all before any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally commented that the byelection process was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have reportedly cited not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," one source said.
Several insiders also shared concerns about Nigel Farage’s party attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Role of the Unions and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
Yet, one Burnham ally warned against assuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform is expected to mount a strong challenge, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to mount a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The departing MP stated he was stepping down due to declining health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains under a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
