Day-to-Day Killings in the nation Fall Thirty-Seven Percent During Claudia Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The mean count of daily killings monthly in Mexico has dropped by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, as stated by new government data. But, security analysts have advised that homicide numbers might not signal enhanced national safety.

Significant Decline in Per-Day Numbers

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 killings a day in the month of November versus nearly 87 when the President assumed the presidential office in September. This information was provided by the director of the nation's national public security agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we’ve had over these past months is very important,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, noting that in November the smallest figure of homicides were documented for any single November in the past decade.

Recent Context and Government Strategy

Fierce organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s highly military campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s homicide numbers rise sharply in the past few years. The figure peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the country’s official data office.

That gave Mexico a murder figure over 4x higher than that of the United States. Since then, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an ostensibly sharper decline in killings this year.

At a media briefing in August, the President stated: “We have a strategy, we have tracking of the plan, and there is specific tracking municipality by municipality in some cases. The strategy works. And we have to persist at it every day.”

The main pillars of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Improving intelligence and investigative work.
• Enhanced coordination between various authorities.

Analyst Caution and Data Limitations

But, security analysts cautioned that relying on homicide data to assess the situation of peace was flawed. This is especially true in light of the uptick in other criminal activities such as forced disappearances.

“This would be very good information if this was a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and say: ‘Oh well, great,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexican cartels. “I would be cautiously positive.”

According to the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year relative to the identical period last year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have surged by as much as 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer useful for assessing the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who lack the ability or the inclination to correctly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organized [criminals] … have the capability to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas added that relying on monthly means of daily homicides was similarly an issue because it could obscure days when there were particularly elevated numbers of killings.

“Relying on the per-day mean renders spikes of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Detentions and Confiscations as Measures of Success

An area where the government can highlight the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Almost 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major crimes, per government figures. More than 20,000 guns were taken and 311 tons of drugs confiscated.

“Donald Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because in reality she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, many thousands of seizures, and all the operational weakening of organised crime. It’s highly politically advantageous,” said Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Frustration

But despite these efforts, Mexico remains grappling with high bloodshed, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven bloodshed. In the previous month there was a high-profile murder of a popular local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders assassinated in the past year.

A short time after, thousands of young people protested in the capital and throughout the country to voice their anger at graft and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to create a picture of security. Politically it’s very effective, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” Vargas said.